Global electric vehicle sales are likely to remain “relatively low” through 2025, but will start rising quickly in subsequent years, according to a new forecast.
The Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017 says EV adoption rates will be boosted by falling battery costs and growing commitments from automakers.
The report, which is published annually, expects 52 pc of new car sales and 33 pc of the global car fleet to be electric by 2040, with China, the US and Europe making up more than 60 pc of the global market.
Bloomberg says EV adoption is heading for an “inflection point” sometime between 2025 and 2030, when the cars will become economical from a total cost of ownership point of view.
The comparison doesn’t take into account official subsidies, which are set to help EV sales in the years leading up to 2025.
Pure battery-electric vehicles will in the long-term outperform plug-in hybrids, Bloomberg says, citing hybrids’ engineering complexity and relatively high costs as working against them after 2025.
Overall EV electricity consumption will rise as more cars are sold and auto-industry demand for lithium-ion batteries is set to soar to 1,300 GwH by 2030 from 21 GwH in 2016.
The rise of EVs will result in lower demand for fossil fuels. Bloomberg predicts that, by 2040, there will be 530 million EVs on the world’s roads, representing 34 pc of the global fleet. This will mean that, globally, the transportation industry will require 8 million barrels of fuel a day less than today.